![]() from Maryland to Maine typically experiences 5 to 10 widespread storms containing a mixture of snow, rain, sleet, and freezing rain. The goals are 1) to characterize the performance of the Navy’s weather models compared to observations and to National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration operational weather models and 2) to identify processes within the weather models that most need refinement.įunding Agencies: National Science Foundation (NSF)ĭuring the winter, the northeast coast of the U.S. ![]() We will build a relational database of matched observations and model forecasts at locations throughout the continental United States including offshore buoys to facilitate flexible data queries. To avoid the conundrum of using high uncertainty reanalysis grid values to evaluate forecast models in conditions where forecast models perform poorly, our approach is to use observations. Conditioning on specific phenomena permits isolation of subsets of the model output where particular processes are more or less prominent which reduces complexity for diagnosis of error sources. To complement those efforts, the proposed work will examine errors as a function of weather conditions. ![]() Most model evaluation efforts contrast regional averages for all weather conditions over periods of months or longer when comparing between model output and observations. These parameters have direct relevance to Navy applications including ship-based activities, aircraft and drone operations, and electromagnetic and electro-optical propagation. Global and regional weather forecast models struggle to consistently reproduce key characteristics of the marine boundary layer, including boundary layer height, cloud thickness, and temperature and moisture profiles. Using measurements from a “satellite-simulating†(top-of-the-atmosphere vantage point with instruments meeting or exceeding the capability of satellite sensors) ER-2 and in-situ measurements from a cloud-penetrating P-3 aircraft, augmented with ground-based radar and rawinsonde observations, data from multiple NASA satellites, convection-permitting regional analyses and short-term forecasts, IMPACTS will provide important observations and research for understanding the mechanisms of snowband formation and evolution within winter storms, provide observations that enable future improvements in measuring snowfall from space, and provide important data to validate and improve numerical models.įunding Agencies: US Navy-Office Of Naval Research IMPACTS comprises a set of aircraft and payloads ideally-suited to the study of eastern US snowstorms. Multiscale snowbands within winter storms are the primary focal points for intense snowfall accumulations, but are poorly understood and therefore difficult to forecast. ![]() A 100-200 km error in the forecast of the rain-snow line or locations of snow bands, or inadequate characterization of the microphysical growth regimes, can result in substantial errors in forecasts of precipitation type and quantity Given that no major winter storm science campaign has taken place along the East Coast in 30 years, and no campaign there has been dedicated specifically to snowfall, now is the time to apply NASA’s unique precipitation observing systems through The Investigation of Microphysics and Precipitation for Atlantic Coast-Threatening Snowstorms (IMPACTS) mission to improve understanding of snowfall processes, remote sensing of snow, and prediction of band structure and evolution. Improving snowstorm prediction, including quantitative precipitation forecasts, can provide significant economic and societal benefit. Major snowstorms have large economic impacts on states, costing as much as $300-700 million per snow-shutdown day. ![]() Northeastern US snowstorms impact large populations in major urban corridors, sometimes up to 100 million people and ~400,000 sq. Funding Agencies: National Aeronautics & Space Administration (NASA) ![]()
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